Thursday, January 31, 2008

Avoiding Disaster

That could've been really bad.

The 'Cats, as usual, started off sluggishly against the Texas Pan-American Broncs. Everyone kept waiting for them to wake up and go on a run.

It took a while.

Northwestern trailed by 4 at halftime, and a fan base already incredibly frustrated with the team's lackluster performance this season was ready to pounce on one man: Bill Carmody.

Fortunately (or unfortunately if you really want Carmody to be fired no matter what), Northwestern had a flexible game plan that allowed them to score 34 points in the paint. Neither team had a size advantage, which allowed the 'Cats to finally use a talent disparity in their favor.

Kevin Coble and Michael Thompson, particularly in the second half, drove to the basket, drawing fouls and creating easy scoring opportunities. Coble finished with 29, Thompson with 18 and 7 assists.

Carmody has to be given credit here. He is often called inflexible and stubborn for refusing to match his team's style of play to the talent on the floor and the opponent on the court. That is a major fault of his, and among other things, could lead to his firing. But for one game, Carmody seemed to make the right moves in his half-time adjustments.

I was also happy to see Carmody keep Jeremy Nash on the floor in the second half. Though against Big Ten teams Nash might not be much of a scoring threat, he seems to be gaining confidence in the offense, which might prove helpful next season.

Still, this was Texas Pan-American. The 'Cats next travel to Bloomington to take on #11 Indiana, which probably won't be pretty. Northwestern needs to somehow find a way to save this momentum for next week when they take on Minnesota at home.

Monday, January 28, 2008

The Clock is Ticking for Bill

Illinois’ 70-37 destruction of Northwestern last night left coaches, players, and fans alike searching for answers.

From the outset, this game was heading in Illinois’ favor. A raucous crowd was behind them, and they were flying all over the court. They had three highlight reel alley-oops in the first ten minutes. Everything was going their way. But that wasn't surprising. Assembly Hall has always been a house of horrors for the Wildcats. However, on Sunday night, the ‘Cats’ play dropped to a level that the program has not seen in years. The ‘Cats loss to 10-11 Illinois wasn’t even competitive.

In previous years under Bill Carmody, Northwestern would usually give elite teams in the Big Ten good games at home. The Princeton Offense would give opponents fits on the court, as NU’s slow pace, good spacing, and tricky backdoor cuts allowed the ‘Cats to stay in most games. Well, those days of happiness and satisfaction under Bill Carmody and the Princeton Offense are coming to an end. The traditionally apathetic student body and fan base have started calling for change, and longtime Carmody supporters, such as myself, are struggling to defend him.

During games this season, the team is often lost on offense and overmatched on defense. Carmody typically waits too long to make adjustments and even when he does, they rarely seem to have an affect on the game. Their consistently terrible starts to both the first half and second half indicates that the coaching staff is not making any adjustments to whatever gameplan they have put together. This came to a boiling point last Thursday when the ‘Cats hosted Michigan State. They opened both the first and second halves with shot clock violations and finished the game with five of them. Carmody’s refusal to adapt his schemes to the personnel and stubborn substitution rotations haunts this team every game.

In addition, the ‘Cats defense and rebounding has deteriorated from terrible, to atrocious 2 ½ months into the season. The 1-3-1 wasn’t working against Brown on November 24th, but they continued to employ it until recently, despite obvious personnel problems. However, when the ‘Cats finally switched to the 2-3 matchup zone, new problems arose. Last night, the Illini were able to take advantage of the ‘Cats inexperience in the 2-3 matchup zone by feeding the ball to Shaun Pruitt in the post and finding soft spots on the wings to hit 3-pointers.

Heading into this season, no one had postseason expectations. However, all fans expected this team to be competitive, especially after the return of Kevin Coble. The ‘Cats got a free pass through the non-conference schedule because of Coble’s absence, but the recent lack of competitiveness in Big Ten season is disheartening. Coach Carmody needs to salvage what could have been a year of growth for an improving program, or it could signal an end to his time at NU.

Sunday, January 20, 2008

So Close, yet So Far

Northwestern’s 62-50 loss last night at Wisconsin was similar to nearly every other big game the Wildcats’ have played in the last several years. They kept it close and entertaining for a good portion of the game, but slowly fell behind, before eventually losing.

The game was a tale of two halves. In the first half, the ‘Cats were able to keep the Badgers off the glass. However, in the second half, as the pace of the game began to pick up, the ‘Cats’ rebounding became worse, and Marcus Landry and Brian Butch were able to control the glass for the Badgers.

In addition to their typical rebounding struggles, the ‘Cats seemed lost on the offensive end. Their spacing was poor and they lacked confidence in the Princeton offense. They were never able to get into a rhythm, and they struggled from behind the arch, shooting only 29% for the game.

The lone bright spot for the ‘Cats was Juice Thompson. He finally started taking people off the dribble before the last 2 minutes of the game. He can break down anybody in the conference 1-on-1, and his ability to get into the lane appears to be the only consistency in the ‘Cats’ offense.

Another major factor in the loss was Kevin Coble’s passive approach on offense. For long stretches of the game, he disappeared and seemed unable to break free from his defender to get an open shot. If the ‘Cats are going to win some conference games, Coble needs to stay aggressive on the offensive end.

Up next: Home vs. #11 Michigan State, yikes…

Monday, January 14, 2008

Flashes of Brilliance

As I watched yesterday's contest from my courtside leather recliner (thank you NU Sports marketing department), I could have sworn a different team was donning the Wildcat jerseys. Crisp, accurate passing into the low block, where either Jaeschke effortlessly hooked, shot, or laid it in. And this wasn't against a Loyola. This was Ohio State, the 19th ranked squad in the nation, boasting arguably the best freshman center in the nation.

By the end of the first half, Ohio State had retaken the lead (once down by 10, led by 5 at the break) and proved they could adjust to prevent the entry passes. So that shut the NU offense down. You knew before the second half began that this game was over. Northwestern showed about 16 minutes of brilliance, but they just don't have the fire power to compete with the Buckeyes.

Still, this was a very good game for the Cats...as good as a 22-point loss could be. I'm not usually one for moral victories, but this would qualify. Especially for Amy Jaeschke. She went toe-to-toe with one of the few girls ranked higher than her out of high school, Jantel Lavender. Lavender brought down more boards (12-8), but Jaeschke shot much better, 11-17 compared to 7-15.

This was Amy's coming out party. After struggling throughout conference season, averaging less than 30% from the field, she finally found her stroke, and more importantly her post presence. If her teammates can continue to feed her the ball in the same style, where she's taking the bulk of her shots from within 8 feet, she can average 16-20ppg in this league fairly easily.

Everyone before the season talked about Jaeschke's versatility and ability to take the outside shot. And for several games, that's what she kept attempting. Against the Buckeyes, she still didn't attack the rim like a typical center (though she did have one beautiful reverse layup). Her bread-and-butter is the 3-4 foot jumper, a high percentage shot where she can use her height without worrying about playing the glass.

A few more thoughts:
- Ellen Jaeschke has played very consistently throughout this season. She nabs a lot of rebounds, especially on the offensive end, and is able to create in the post fairly well. As she settles into her role of complementing her cousin, she will only improve.
- As my colleague Aaron Morse pointed out 3 months ago, Meshia Reed is the real deal. Two 20-point performances in the Big Ten. Averaging nearly 7 rebounds per contest. The ability to both drive and shoot. Cartwright has that ability but never took the shots. Reed wants the ball in her hands...and even though she's a freshman, she's the only one I trust to make a jumper.
- Reed's increased playing has for some reason diminished Nadia Bibbs' scoring output. They are very similar players, so with Reed in the game, Bibbs seems to let her drive the hole, thus leaving outside shots to the senior. But Bibbs can't hit those. Her best moves come on the baseline.
- Jenny Eckhart continues to frustrate. At first, I thought the non-shooting point guard is just what Combs wants out of that position. Marshall rarely took shots. Eckhart hasn't. Bibbs didn't when she was at the point. But Combs says she told Eckhart to be more agressive, take more jumpers, even move into the paint. But she won't do it. She has brilliant speed and a determination that should scare off most defenders. But for some reason, she'd rather give it up than take the shot herself.
- The last of the Original Five is down. First Cartwright, then Marshall, then Jaeschke, then McInerney, and now, Sara Stutz. A partial ligament tear, sidelining her for three weeks. This has been a brutal year for the senior captain, with on-the-court struggles, a benching, and now this. Still, I respect her tremendously for sticking with this program, despite her reported differences with Combs.

Sunday, January 13, 2008

Searching for answers...

...and coming up empty. Last night's loss to the Michigan was disgusting, especially because of the fashion in which it came. The final score makes the game look a lot closer than it actually was.

The 'Cats were down by 30 points at one point in the second half, and despite a late rally following a monstrous dunk from Mike Capocci, Northwestern was pretty much embarrassed by the Wolverines.

At this point, I don't think there's much Bill Carmody can change in his team to produce better results. NU has started the Big Ten season relatively light as far as opponents, and have produced no wins. When the Indiana's, Michigan State's and Wisconsin's roll through, it's going to be even uglier.

Hopefully something clicks with this team, or an 0-18 Big Ten season does not seem so far out of the realm of possibility.

Thursday, January 10, 2008

Identity Crisis

In a winnable game at Minnesota last night, Northwestern played with the wrong mindset and lost 82-63. For the first 7 minutes of the game, the ‘Cats played an up-tempo attack. This approach was successful at first, but quickly turned sour. After taking and making shots early in possessions, the ‘Cats hot shooting cooled off and they seemed lost on the court.

They started forcing shots early in possessions and were careless with the basketball, both of which are not characteristics of a Bill Carmody coached team. When their shooting inevitably cooled off, the ‘Cats continued to play up-tempo and out of control, and Minnesota promptly went on a 22-2 run, turning a 20-14 Northwestern advantage, to 36-22 margin in less than 10 minutes.

If the ‘Cats are going to have success in-conference this season, they need to understand their identity. They cannot continue to play up-tempo basketball in the Big Ten against bigger and better athletes. I know both fans and players were excited about this up-tempo pace at the beginning of the season, but other than scoring in transition the ‘Cats can’t continue to play this faster-paced game. They don’t have the shooters or athletes to keep up with other Big Ten opponents in a faster-paced game.

Up next: Home vs. Michigan on Saturday at 5:30.

Saturday, January 5, 2008

Live from Ann Arbor!

I know, my women's entries have been sparse. Maybe it'll pick up with conference season.

After I see more of this team this BT season, I plan to go on a long rant about Coach Combs and her coaching ability. So far, recruiting can't stand on its own. But I'll give her a little more time to adjust to Amy being in the lineup.

So let's talk about Amy. Tomorrow's match-up with Michigan features the first time in conference where Amy will go up against a girl taller than her. Krista Phillips is not a huge threat on the boards, and is barely averaging double figures. But the way Jaeschke's been playing down low, Phillips' 6'6" height might be enough.

The single most frustrating aspect of this NU team (and it's hard to pinpoint that) is the lack of post-presence. McInerney, both Jaeschkes, Boyd, Bielawski, Stedman: none of them move naturally in the paint. McInerney flops the ball up. Ellen pushes it toward the glass from 4 feet out. Boyd picks up a foul every other posession. And all of them drop the ball immediately when they get the pass inside before posting up...which they're unable to do.

Instead of following through on the post up, continuing to move inside, they give up on it, and decide quickly to try and draw a foul instead, which they rarely get. I hardly ever see them actually use the glass on the layup. I know it's possible...every other team does it against NU.

Unfortunately, Amy Jaeschke has been a disappointment thus far. How much can we blame on being a greenhorn? She settles for outside shots because she has "range", rather than positioning herself for the high percentage roll-ins, which her height naturally gives her a greater advantage in.

There seems to be no offensive game plan or philosophy. They go down the court with one play, and if it breaks down, Bibbs or Reed just try to do it all alone.

Tomorrow's game will be a solid challenge. Michigan's the only team NU has beaten consistently the past three years, but they seem to have improved more than Northwestern has. They don't do well on the glass, but they take their time, set up plays, share the ball, and take high percentage shots . They have a new coach who had tremendous success at UW-GB, and just beat Iowa handily. Maybe I'll finally see a new Northwestern team (like the last time they won here, two years ago, my first play-by-play....ah, memories). But I doubt it.

Thursday, January 3, 2008

Good and Bad

Here is the good and the bad from yesterday's Big Ten home opening 79-68 loss to Penn State:

Good: First half intensity- It was nice to see Northwestern come out strong at home for once. After several times falling behind big early on in non-conference games, the 'Cats scored the first six points of the game, all from Craig Moore, and were up 18-9 before Penn State began chipping away.

Bad: Halftime Adjustments- Northwestern was leading by a point at halftime, and the 'Cats were playing well offensively and defensively. It had all the makings of another close game, one that Northwestern could pull out at home. But in between the time the 'Cats went in and out of the locker room at halftime, Penn State figured out how to beat Northwestern, and crushed the 'Cats in the paint. ESPN color man Steve Bardo said Northwestern was probably hoping no other Big Ten teams get their hands on the tape from last night's game, and he's definitely right.

Good: Coble back on the floor- He looked rusty and not exactly comfortable in the offense, but it was nice to see Kevin Coble back out there. He showed glimpses of the type of player he was last year and will be down the road this year. Coble has an ability that only Juice Thompson has on this team, which is the ability to create his own shot. Hopefully once Coble gets his legs back under him he'll return to the form that led to him to the freshman All-Big Ten team.

Bad: Craig Moore after the first 5 minutes- Moore was red-hot throughout the non-conference season, and it appeared that the woes of last year that plagued him throughout Big Ten season were behind him. After he scored the first 6 points of the ball game, there was no indication that his play was going to suffer at all. But then Moore got into foul trouble, sat on the bench for most of the first half, and was awful in the second stanza. Moore was throwing up air balls and blew a 4-on-1 break for the 'Cats that ended any chance of them coming back in the game. I think Moore needs one of those things that Will Smith used in Men In Black to completely erase someone's memory, because Moore gets down on himself far too easily and lets it affect his play.

Good: Juice- There was some concern among Northwestern fans about whether Juice would be able to keep up his great play once Big Ten season rolled around. It is still early, but Juice showed that he has what it takes to compete in this conference. He hustles on defense and simply creates on offense. Now that he has Coble back to take some of the pressure off of him to score, look for Juice to continue to rack up the assists. And next time Northwestern has a 4-on-1 break, pray Juice is the one bringing the ball up.

Really really really bad- Interior Defense- The 'Cats had problems guarding the perimeter during non-conference play, causing fans to clamor for Carmody to switch out of the 1-3-1. Last night, the exact opposite happened. Penn State still shot well from the outside, but the play of Geary Claxton and Jamelle Cornley took Northwestern out of the game in the second half. Why could Northwestern not adjust to Penn State's game plan? I understand the 'Cats don't have size, but there are other ways to defend big men. Namely, double teams and denial of entry passes. It was extremely frustrating to watch the 'Cats hit a three on one end and then get dunked on 10 seconds later. And Penn State does not even have close to the best inside game in the Big Ten. Here's hoping Bill Carmody and his staff figure this one out.

So bad I might not even watch: Sunday, 11 a.m.- NU @ Ohio State- This one is going to get ugly very quickly. Remember Virginia? Could be worse.